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Debt & Big Projects

WA paid down debt during the boom. Now it's borrowing again, and fast. Big projects keep costing more than first promised, and the "lower than forecast" debt mostly reflects spending that was delayed, not money saved.

Headline figures

  • $44.7bn: net debt forecast for June 2029, a record. (BP3 2026-27)
  • About $2bn a year in interest across the total public sector (2024-25). (ARSF 2024-25)
  • +83%: Metronet like-for-like, $3bn to $5.5bn. (ABC)
  • $4.7bn → $7.2bn: Westport's estimate from 2020 to 2024, which excludes the road and rail upgrades it needs. (The Age)
  • +29,707 FTE (+26.8%) in the public sector in six years. (PSC)

Findings

1. Debt bottomed out in 2023 and is heading for a record

  • Fact: Total public sector net debt was $31.96bn at June 2017 (ARSF 2016-17), fell to $27.4bn at June 2023 (ARSF 2022-23), and was $33.4bn at June 2026 (ARSF 2025-26 media statement). The Budget forecasts $40.26bn (2027), $43.33bn (2028), $44.68bn (2029) and $43.99bn (2030, 8.9% of GSP) (BP3).
  • Fact: The June 2026 figure was $5.6bn below the original Budget forecast, mainly because of "timing changes in grants and contract payments". $1.4bn of the surplus went to the Building Hospitals Fund (media statement).
  • Fact: Interest in 2024-25 was $1,750m ("other interest") plus $255m in lease interest across the non-financial public sector, and $1,017m in the general government sector alone (ARSF 2024-25). Budget interest-rate assumptions rise from 3.6% (2024-25) to 4.7% (2029-30) (BP3).
  • Our read: "Below forecast" here means spending was delayed. The debt is deferred, not avoided. Debt is forecast to rise about $17.3bn from June 2023 to June 2029, despite eight surpluses in a row. Note: figures before 2020 are not strictly comparable because of the AASB 16 lease accounting change.

2. Metronet: the like-for-like cost rose 83%

  • Fact: On the Minister's own like-for-like figures, Metronet rose from $3bn to $5.5bn (+83%). Thornlie–Cockburn more than doubled to $1.1bn (ABC, Apr 2024). Byford rose from $797m to $1.33bn (+67%) (ABC, Oct 2025).
  • Fact: An ABC analysis of budget papers found about $4.7bn in price increases from when each project first entered the budget. About $3bn more is still to come for high-capacity signalling and ferries (ABC, Feb 2026).
  • Our read: The headline program grew partly because scope was added. That's why we lead with the like-for-like 83% rather than the total.

3. Major projects routinely run over budget

  • Fact: The Auditor General's 2023 review found 20 major projects rose from $8.7bn to $10.7bn (about +23%). 14 went over budget, and 4 of those by more than 100% (OAG 2023).
  • Fact: Westport's 2020 estimate was $4.7bn. The 2024 business case was $7.2bn in today's dollars, excluding the required road and rail upgrades (The Age; ABC; business case summary).
  • Our read: The full public cost of Westport is materially above $7.2bn once the excluded road and rail work is counted.

4. The public payroll grew almost twice as fast as the population

  • Fact: Public sector FTE rose from 110,972 (2018-19) to 140,679 (2024-25), up 29,707 or 26.8%. The two fastest years were the most recent: +4.5% and +5.5% (PSC 2022-23; PSC 2024-25).
  • Fact: Population grew 14.5% over the same years (2,659,625 to 3,045,000) (ABS; .id). That means FTE per 1,000 residents went from 41.7 to 46.2.
  • Fact: About 74% of headcount growth from 2020-21 to 2024-25 was in Health and Education (PSC 2024-25).
  • Our read: The state grew faster than the population it serves. Much of the growth is frontline, so the question is whether services improved to match. The government doesn't publish an administration-versus-frontline split.

5. Consultant reporting rule rescinded

  • Fact: Premier's Circular 2025/17 required agencies to report consultants engaged at $50k or more every six months. The DPC rescinded-circulars list records it as "Rescinded on 24/03/2026". We found no replacement in the current list (rescinded list; current circulars).
  • Fact: That reporting only ever covered "strategic advice". Engineering, project management, IT, accounting and publicity contracts were excluded (QoN 6028, 2020).
  • Our read: Less reporting on a narrow measure means even less visibility. Why was the rule dropped, and what replaced it?

What we'd do: an Honest Numbers Act

  • Publish the original and current cost and completion date of every project over $100m in every Budget.
  • Create a Parliamentary Budget Office to cost election promises before polling day.
  • Set a surplus rule: a fixed share of every surplus goes to paying down debt or cutting taxes, not to special-purpose funds.
  • Report public sector headcount every year, split between frontline and administration.
  • Restore and widen consultant and contractor reporting, published online, not just "may be tabled".